Something else a little different... Who is good enough, and whose schedule is favorable enough, to go undefeated during the 2009 regular season? Here goes...
FBS: Expect one undefeated. Florida has about a 48% chance. Oklahoma about a 13% chance. USC, Texas, Penn State, and Boise each have between a 5 and 7% chance. TCU, Ole Miss, Ohio State, Iowa, Alabama, Cal, and Pitt fall in the range of 1 to 4% chance.
FCS: Odds are that no one in the FCS will go undefeated. The best chance goes to Montana (6%) followed by Dayton (3%), Richmond (3%), and James Madison (3%). App State and Harvard each have a 2% chance. A host of others are at 1%.
D2: Expect two undefeated teams. Chances are as follows: Minn-Duluth (43%), UNA (22%), Abilene Christian (20%), NW Missouri State (16%), Grand Valley (15%), Indiana PA (10%). About 20 others fall between 1 and 5%.
D3: Expect at least three undefeated teams... Mount Union (73%), UW-Whitewater (38%), Mary Hardin-Baylor (27%), Monmouth IL (23%), Wash & Jeff (19%), Millsaps (17%), Wabash (13%), Case Western (11%), and several others between 5 and 8% (Wheaton, Franklin, Wesley, Redlands, Muhlenberg, Willamette, and Wartburg).
NAIA: Expect one and possibly two undefeated teams... Saint Francis IN (31%), Morningside (21%), Carroll MT (14%), Lindenwood (14%), Friends (14%). The rest are all less than 8%.
One caveat... beyond the FBS, I cannot account for returning starters for the other divisions. So, for these divisions, the above is basically projecting last year's teams into this year's schedules. The numbers I post to the team pages (http://www.atomicfootball.com/af-team-links.html) from which these projections come will be updated as the season progresses. Expect the biggest changes after week one when this year's performance first begins to get factored in.
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