Friday, October 12, 2018

Recovery, Part 3

So after seeing a couple of good weeks, I couldn't help but be curious.  I pulled down Todd's data archive for the season to date from Prediction Tracker.  After filtering the first week out, darn if I wasn't the most accurate (in terms of Mean Square Error) of anyone, including the line (which was second).  Doing this well early in the season is really hard.  I hate that I've messed up my numbers for the year.

If you're curious, I had a formula in a spreadsheet that pulled over the returning quarterbacks data.  Unfortunately, I forgot to convert the formulas to values before I sorted the teams.  The teams "sorted," but the returning QB numbers never moved.

Such is life.

Sunday, October 7, 2018

Recovery, Part 2

I did another spot check on last week (week #6).  Again, most accurate in terms of mean square error, again by a pretty good margin, beating even the updated line* (~268 to ~276).  Now I'm beginning to wonder how the season numbers would look if I hadn't boogered up week #1.  Oh, well.

*Disclaimer:  I very highly recommend the stock market over sports betting.

Monday, September 17, 2018


I didn't do a close check on week two, but week three was definitely much better. According to Todd Beck's Prediction Tracker (, my mean square error for the week was the best among all those he tracks by a pretty decent margin. I'll try to keep it going (even in the midst of my annual grind-me-into-the-ground case of walking pneumonia -- ugghhh).

Tuesday, September 4, 2018


For those who might have been using my predictions for the first weekend of September (2018), my apologies.  There were several errors in my returning quarterbacks data that caused the predictions to be very much sub-par for the week.

It's been a rough summer.  I did well to get Atomic Football going at all.