2009 Projected FBS Conference Winners

I don't do these kinds of predictions very often, and, when I do, they're a little rougher than my game predictions. However, I thought it would be fun to project out to the end of the season, accounting for schedules and home field advantage, to make an educated "computer guess" as to who are likely winners of their conferences. Keep in mind that computer predictions are less prone to "speculate" on big year-to-year swings, so don't be surprised if things are not substantially different from last year. One key factor to note: Home field advantage makes its biggest difference against a well-matched opponent. It has little affect on mismatches. So, teams contending for their conference championship tend to be favored if they face their toughest challengers at home. With that, here goes...

ACC: There is little doubt that the ACC is among the most consistent of the BCS conferences. Maybe not a lot of top 10 teams, but LOTS of top 40 quality teams. In the Atlantic, Florida State should edge out an improved Clemson team by a win. Wake and BC are also contenders. In the Coastal, Virginia Tech should have an even bigger advantage over North Carolina. Georgia Tech could also challenge.

Big 12: In the North, the edge goes to Missouri, but not by much. Kansas will give them a run. I'll have to "wait and see" on Nebraska. In the much stronger South, the schedules seem to favor Oklahoma over Texas. Oklahoma State and Texas Tech will need to outperform to be in the running.

Big East: Pittsburgh looks to be the front-runner, with several teams on their heels: West Virginia, Rutgers, USF, a fading Cincinnati, and Connecticut. Not much I can add to this.

Big Ten: It looks like a dead heat between Penn State and Ohio State. It seems unlikely that both those teams would stumble and give an improving Iowa team an opening.

C-USA: In the East, the Pirates of East Carolina should be favored to repeat, but Southern Miss will make it tough on them. Look for the rest of the East to finish at or below 0.500 in the conference. In the West, I'd also give Tulsa a similar edge over Houston. Rice and UTEP will round out the top four.

MAC: Overall, the MAC could host the most exciting conference race in the country, with pretty consistent performers top to bottom. The East will be very tight with Temple, Buffalo, and Bowling Green leading the pack and Akron and Ohio U. on their tails. In the West, Central Michigan is favored to knock off reigning champ Ball State. Closely-matched Western Michigan, Northern Illinois, and an improved Toledo will fill the next three slots behind the Chippewas and Cards.

MWC: TCU's Horned Frogs should win at least 6 conference games to take the title, but only if Utah and BYU let them. The rest of the group will watch from the sidelines.

Pac-10: USC is almost a lock -- almost. Cal or Oregon will need to overachieve to knock them off. Oregon State, Arizona, and Stanford should still finish at or above 0.500 in the conference. It doesn't look good for the rest of the "Pac."

SEC: In the East, Florida should coast to victory over a fading Georgia. The rest will do well to finish 0.500 in the conference. In the West, the scheduling favors a surging Ole Miss team slightly over Alabama. If not for Florida busting the curve, the West would easily be the stronger half of the conference.

Sun Belt: The Troy Trojans should have little trouble claiming the crown, trailed in the distance by a tight pack consisting of Arkansas State, an experienced MTSU team, Floridas Int'l and Atlantic, and a sliding La-Lafayette.

WAC: Boise. Period. OK, not really. Nevada could make a run at the Broncos.

One last thing... I would love to do the other divisions, but #1, this is a hobby, it doesn't pay the bills, and my time is limited. #2, finding easily accessible info on returning starters, etc. is next to impossible for all but the FBS and FCS. If you're interested, I can send you the data I have and tell you how to crunch the numbers yourself. If you're savvy with Excel, it's not hard. That's the best I can do.